THE capture of Saddam Hussein is a massive shot in the arm for the political prospects of both George Bush and his staunchest international ally, Tony Blair.
The prospect of months, even years, of a cat-and-mouse chase in pursuit of the dictator, following the failure to capture Osama bin Laden, had been haunting the White House and Downing Street.
The detention of Saddam may now embolden some of his former henchmen to reveal the crucial details of what, if any, weapons of mass destruction Iraq possessed and explain his defiance of the international community.
Resolving that issue is more important for Mr Blair than Mr Bush, with the Hutton Inquiry report into the death of weapons expert Dr David Kelly due to be published next month, rekindling the whole issue of whether the premier misled the country into war.
With Saddam now captured, and presumably betrayed, the coalition has been seen to accomplish one of its most important aims following its lightning occupation of Iraq. That will be taken by the Pentagon and Donald Rumsfeld, US defence secretary, as a complete justification of their tactics.
Labour MPs who opposed the war will still press their case that it was the issue of international legitimacy which made them question the war. But with power due to be handed over to the Iraqis next year, and Saddam now facing a humiliating trial, widespread opposition to the war may well diminish.
Mr Blair, speaking in Downing Street yesterday, chose his words carefully. There was no triumphalism, no premature celebrations or talk of an end to hostilities in Iraq. Instead the prime minister talked of ''the shadow of Saddam'' finally lifting from the Iraqi people, and of ''a moment to reach out and reconcile''.
The prime minister was at Chequers yesterday when Jonathan Powell, his chief of staff, phoned to impart the news of Saddam's capture around 9am. Mr Blair's relief can only be imagined after months of unremitting bad news headlines from Iraq, the shadow of the Hutton inquiry hanging over the government, and the failure of the coalition to find WMDs: not to mention the sacked, discontented and disillusioned Labour back benchers teaming up with Gordon Brown's supporters to embarrass him at every turn.
Last night, a source close to the prime minister would only say Mr Blair was ''obviously very pleased''. He added that it was ''great news just before Christmas'' but pointed out that the message was principally about reconciliation.
Mr Blair did not respond to the news immediately. Instead he returned to Downing Street, spoke to Mr Bush, who had been wakened at Camp David, before he made a televised statement shortly after lunch.
The significance and timing of the prime minister's statement should not be underestimated: Mr Blair was the first world leader to confirm the news, and broadcast to the nation, and the world. Later, when Mr Bush did speak, he echoed Mr Blair, presenting the capture as ''crucial to the rise of a free Iraq''.
Mr Blair's supporters, hoping Saddam's capture will impact on public opinion and bolster the government's case for going to war, claimed ''it was a stark reminder of what it was all about''.
The prime minister is not yet out of the woods on Iraq. While his most hardline critics will never be appeased, Mr Blair has still to survive the scrutiny of Lord Hutton, and weapons of mass destruction must be found to validate the reasons for going to war. Last night, Foreign Office sources insisted the weapons ''would be found sooner or later''. Saddam's capture may bring that date closer.
It will also help Mr Bush with an American public increasingly sceptical of his Iraq strategy, and it will, at least temporarily, silence his Democratic rivals.
The war sent the president's poll ratings soaring, but they then fell to levels before the September 11 terrorist attacks as the post-war situation grew increasingly dangerous.
Having Saddam in custody is as much a symbolic prize as a tactical one. Democrats campaigning for the 2004 presidential elections have latched on to the chaotic situation in Iraq to criticise Mr Bush for not gaining enough international co-operation on the war and for not planning adequately for the war's messy aftermath.
Partly as a result, the president's poll ratings have levelled off around the 50% mark. They will certainly pick up again.
Some of the president's most fervent critics have also suggested that the Iraq war was a personal mission for Mr Bush, saying he was only trying to complete the work of his father, the president who waged the United States' first war against Iraq, but who pulled out without toppling Saddam. Whatever his motivation, the son has effectively eclipsed the father.
